What is the "exchange rate"?

Exchange rate (exchange rate) is the price of one unit of a country's currency expressed in units of another country's currency 🌍

How many types of course are there?

❶⠀Reference rate: at 13:00 on each trading day, the NBR cumulates the arithmetic averages of the exchange rates ( "BID" / "ASK" quotation) of the 10 main banks in the system. 

The resulting value, as an average, is published on the NBR website and in various systems (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.) and is also picked up by the media. 📈

Thus, this rate has no direct relevance for daytime trading. 

It is just a reference rate, a "midprice" quotation (average of "BID" / "ASK"), set today and used the next day in accounting records, for tax reasons. 🤓

❷⠀Market price: formed at interbank level, depending on the bid-ask ratio.

What are the market price sizes?

➤⠀IDB quotation (or buying rate): this is the rate at which the "price-taker" (in our case, the bank) buys the base currency against the other currency.

➤⠀ASK quotation(or selling rate): this is the rate at which the price " seller" (in our case, the bank) sells the base currency against the other currency.

What are the courses by payment deadline?

❶⠀Course in sight (SPOT) or FX trade "tdy" ( today); "tom" (tommorow); "spot" (over two days): is a transaction to buy or sell an amount of one currency in exchange for another currency. 

The exchange rate is predetermined and can have 3 settlement dates:

➤⠀"tdy": today / oggi (t+0);

➤⠀"tom": tomorrow / demain (t+1);

➤⠀"spot": in two days (t+2).

❷⠀Forward (FORWARD) or FX forward transaction*: is a sale/purchase of an amount in one currency in exchange for another currency. 

The transaction is executed on a fixed date in the future and at a pre-determined rate on the transaction date, with the actual settlement of the amounts taking place on the fixed date. 📆

*What is NOT the forward quote:

➤⠀ Market expectations for spot rates;

➤⠀indication or estimation of the spot rate in the future.

What determines exchange rate changes?

In a free market, the level of the exchange rate is determined by the relationship between the supply and demand for foreign exchange:

➤⠀a high demand for foreign currency leads to an increase in price, resulting in a depreciation of the national currency;

➤⠀a large supply of foreign currency leads to a lower exchange rate, resulting in an appreciation of the national currency.

Factors influencing the demand and supply of foreign exchange will have a direct impact on the evolution of the exchange rate. 💱

Among the most important factors influencing the exchange rate are:

➤⠀Speculative actions: inflows/outflows of large-value money flows in the short term;

➤⠀political factors (example of positive factors: legislative stability, long-term projects);

➤⠀Central bank interventionsin the market: liquidity infusions/withdrawals, currency purchases/sales;

➤⠀monetary financial factors: market interest rate, trade balance, budget deficit;

➤⠀domestic economic factors: output volume, labour productivity, quality of goods and services, purchasing power, etc;

➤⠀external factors: political (alliances, military conflicts), economic (free trade areas, economic crises in trading partner areas), etc.